For ensemble, the only predictable nominations that happened were Spotlight and The Big Short. Spotlight is one of the best reviewed films of the year and has become an art-house hit. Its distributor Open Road is fairly new to the awards game, and had a nice little respectable run last year with Nightcrawler. Spotlight is also considered the frontrunner for Best Picture. The Big Short, put out by Paramount, hasn't even been released yet, but its reviews have been decent and it features a starry cast including Steve Carell, Christian Bale, and Brad Pitt. It was a bit of a late-bloomer with pretty low expectations for a great deal of the year. After that, however, is where all the magic happened. Considered a long-shot, but within the realm of possibility as far as grabbing "the last slot," was Straight Out of Compton. Universal isn't the best big studio campaigner, and the film itself doesn't feature an individual performance that is expected to make a run for any honours, so while it was a possible nominee, the true-life story was still a small surprise, at least as far as where expectations were a day ago. Contrary to the main theme of what occurred with the SAG announcement, Compton was a runaway box-office hit.
However, Compton was much less of a shocker compared to Trumbo and Beasts of No Nation landing in the ensemble category. Certainly, like Compton, Trumbo was definitely under consideration, but the talk had been minimal. But, even then, no one considered the possibility that Trumbo would end up garnering more nominations than any other film (three, the lowest on record in SAG history; there has never been a year where only one film gets this low of a nomination count; 1995, 2000, 2003, and 2006 had multiple films that hit this number, but most years there is one that reaches at least four). While its commercial showing was humble, its critical rating certainly was exceptionally low for award consideration (MC 60). Beasts of No Nation, on the other hand, was oft predicted for most of the year, but certainly not for a SAG ensemble nod (mainly for its lack of known actors, and most of them children). And most of its awards prospects began to dry up as it got drowned out at TIFF for other critical hits, and then made a big thud at the box-office while it was simultaneously being released online. In retrospect, it's odd to have placed such expectations on the film's commercial performance, considering its platform, certainly. But, we live in a time now, where it's difficult to gauge how much of an impact a film can make when its main revenue generation is through online streaming. But, whatever Bleecker Street and Netflix (the studios behind Beasts; the former responsible for Trumbo) did, worked, and threw a huge monkey wrench into the award proceedings. We'll find out soon enough if this was a phenomenon regulated to just SAG, or a harbinger of things to come this season in either of these cases.
Now, which films lost ground? Well, The Martian was widely predicted to land here, so to speak. But voters decided to fling it out to space. Not that its an actorly film, or features characters actors would want to play (aside from maybe the lead), the conventional thinking was that it was a box-office hit with good enough critical marks that featured a wide range of stars. It, along with its lead Matt Damon (who is expected to win the C/M Globe) were AWOL. Also expected by some was the continued rise of Brooklyn. The movie had Fox Searchlight behind it, and has done impressively at the box-office as well. It has enough recognisable names, but, like The Martian, perhaps the story was too focused on the lead character. Joy, The Revenant, and The Hateful Eight all missed, but they were also late in getting their screeners out or, like Eight, sidestepped the screener process in favour of proper screenings in theatres during a roadshow tour. Also missing was Steve Jobs, which had the reviews, but tanked at the box-office. People thought that perhaps the large cast would redeem it, but that wasn't the case in ensemble. Some hoped that the group would go for Todd Haynes' Carol, but, TWC, which normally manages at least one nod here a year, couldn't make the critical darling happen. There were other possibilities, but for one reason or another, weren't predicted by most. And for good reason.
Best Actor was one of the more predicable categories. The over-performing Trumbo got in with the one surprise nominee Bryan Cranston over probably second-favoured Matt Damon in the snubbed The Martian. Otherwise, Oscar favourite Leonardo DiCaprio landed. The Revenant screeners got out for his film late, but his frontrunner status helped him seal a nomination as is often the case in these situations. Also nominated were Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl), and Johnny Depp (Black Mass).
Best Actress was predictable as far as Brie Larson (Room), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), and Cate Blanchett (Carol) making it. Jennifer Lawrence was expected, but there was also the possibility of her missing, as her reviews haven't been undeniable, and her film's overall critical reception has been quite scathing in the context of the last three main David O. Russell films. Screeners also went out late which quite possibly dictated her miss here. But, it was hard-campaigner Carey Mulligan who didn't make it in, nor respected veterans Lily Tomlin, Maggie Smith, or Charlotte Rampling (who had just won LAFCA Best Actress). It wasn't even Blythe Danner, who has been getting the word out about her I'll See You in My Dreams, which happens to be Bleecker Street's highest grossing film to date. No, it was Helen Mirren (who campaigned for Woman in Gold, backed by TWC) whose movie did well enough commercially last Spring, but was a flop critically, kind of like Trumbo. Even more inexplicable, was first-time nominee Sarah Silverman, whose film received mixed reviews and grossed less than $60,000 USD. The distributor for I Smile Back is Broad Green Pictures, which also provided another surprise in the supporting actor category.
Many were expecting Spotlight to be the biggest SAG nominee after today, in part to two of its actors, Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. It's a true ensemble film with an assortment of characters who perhaps aren't exclusively supporting. Both have received incredible ink for their performances dating all the way back to TIFF. Ruffalo was considering the #1 acting MVP of every film at the festival in a poll conducted by IndieWire. Michael Keaton had just won the NYFCC Best Actor prize (in lead, however). Both gentleman missed here, and it still remains a bit of a mystery. I haven't seen the film, but perhaps they are more lead than I've been led to believe. Anyhow, it's Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) who was the only "lock" that got in here. Jacob Tremblay (Room) was also widely considered, but more on the edge of the competition. However, this continues the idea, like Beasts, that, in general, this voting body responds quite favourably to children. The frontrunner from most of earlier this year whose chances had seem to evaporate starting in September, Idris Elba (Beasts of No nation), was another nominee. Because a studio can freely push their actors into whichever category they please, whether it be lead or supporting (which, again, boggles the mind when you think about Spotlight), Christian Bale (who is favoured to get a nod in lead at the Globes) landed a nod for ensemble nominee The Big Short. He certainly wasn't a huge surprise, but considering the competition, the expectations for him getting in were incredibly low. Even lower than him, was Michael Shannon in Broad Green Pictures' 99 Homes. Shannon is incredibly memorable as the heartless real estate developer, and, for once, the group unquestionably got his nomination right. He delivered one of the best performances of the year. Missing out with the two Spotlight gentlemen was Sylvester Stallone, who is having a bit of comeback with his Rocky sequel Creed. Outliers Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) and Benicio del Toro (Sicario) also didn't make the cut.
Finally, in Supporting Actress, the group had no problem buying the category fraud of Rooney Mara (Carol), and The Danish Girl's Alicia Vikander (again, compounding the inexplicability of the Spotlight men missing). Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) came out hard and she came out swinging early in the season, so there was little doubt she'd miss despite her film being box-office poison. Rachel McAdams wasn't widely predicted, but, she was up there. I had a hard time seeing her not getting in (just like her two aforementioned costars) for frontrunner Spotlight. Helen Mirren, who is also a nominee for Woman in Gold, was the first go-to nominee for Trumbo. Though she appeared to be campaigning for Woman in Gold, people decided that perhaps she was really putting herself out there for Trumbo, but, in actuality, she was doing double duty, and it paid off. She perhaps edged out Jane Fonda for a nomination, who had been hitting the pavement the last couple months promoting her cameo in Youth. Fonda was left out along with Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) and Julie Walters (Brooklyn).
So, this was all very interesting. I doubt a year like this happens ever again, but I imagine it will inform future races in some way. Tomorrow, Golden Globe nominations are announced!
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