Oscar Predictions 2015: Pre-Venice/Telluride/TIFF

It has been over four months since I last made predictions on here for Best Picture as well as the other major categories, so I'm providing an update as we head into the swing of Venice/Telluride/TIFF.  

1 (+31)

Beasts of No Nation (Netflix).  Focus Feature's sloppy seconds is now suddenly looking stronger going into the Fall season.  It'll simultaneously be released in theatres and on the internet after debuting at Venice, Telluride, and Toronto.  It looks like it could at the very least make a play for a screenplay and acting win.  While its distributor doesn't have a record with film, they clearly aren't playing around when it comes to their campaign for this film.  Stars: Idris Elba, and Abraham Attah.  Director: Cary Fukunaga (Sin Nombre, Jane Eyre, True Detective).  Adapted Screenplay: Fukunaga.  Editor: Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, Pete Beaudreau (All Is Lost).  Score: Dan Romer (Beasts of the Southern Wild).  Production Designer: Inbal Weinberg.  Costume Designer: Jenny Eagan.  US Release Date: 16. October 2015 (after Venice/Telluride/TIFF bows)

2 (+2)

Joy (20th-Century Fox).  The trailer is out and promises to be a holiday feel-good movie for the year.  In a year with seemingly few live-action big studio films, this seems to be the surest bet.  Stars: Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro, Bradley Cooper, Diane Ladd, Virginia Madsen, Édgar Ramírez, Elisabeth Röhm, Isabella Rossellini, and Dascha Polanco.  Director: David O. Russell.  Original Screenplay: Russell. Producer: Megan Ellison (The Master, Zero Dark Thirty, Her, American Hustle, Foxcatcher).  Editor: Jay Cassidy (American Hustle, Silver Linings Playbook, Into the Wild), Alan Baumgarten (American Hustle).  Cinematographer: Linus Sandgren (American Hustle).  Production Designer: Judy Becker (American Hustle).  Costume Designer: Michael Wilkinson (American Hustle).  US release date: 25. December 2015.

3 (--)

The Danish Girl (Focus).  Focus has two potentially big players.  However, Tom Hooper having won the directing Oscar experienced critical backlash with his last outing (Les Misérables), and that trend could continue.  Eddie Redmayne having won last year for Best Actor may face that too if there are cracks in his performance, and the smaller scale film isn't supported by some mainstream success.  Stars: Redmayne, Alicia Vikander, Amber Heard, Ben Whishaw, and Matthias Schoenaerts.  Director: Tom Hooper (The King's Speech, Les Misérables).  Screenplay: David Ebershoff.  Editor: Melanie Oliver (Les Misérables).  Score: Alexandre Desplat.  Cinematographer: Danny Cohen (The King's Speech).  Production Designer: Eve Stewart (Topsy-Turvy, The King's Speech, Les Misérables).  Costume Designer: Paco Delgado (Les Misérables).  Will debut at Venice and screen at TIFF.  US release date: 27. November 2015 (after Venice/TIFF bows)

4 (-2)

Inside Out (Disney).  This is Pixar's second highest grossing film ever, and highest grossing non-sequel.  It has a 94 MC rating, equal to Wall-E, and only surpassed by Ratatouille by two points.  It's almost a given that it will win animated feature and be nominated for screenplay, score, and sound editing, at a minimum.  Could it go further than that?  Probably not.  But nothing else winning makes sense at this point.  Voice-work: Diane Lane, Mindy Kaling, Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, and Kyle MacLachlan.  Directors: Peter Docter, Ronaldo Del Carmen.  Original screenplay written by Docter, Josh Cooley, and Meg LeFauve.  Score: Michael Giacchino (Up, Ratatouille).  Released. 

5 (--)

Carol (TWC).  This isn't the breakout type of film Harvey Weinstein usually catapults into the Best Picture race.  His history of BP nominees is full of crowdpleasers, so if this were to get in, it would be very atypical.  Still, Far From Heaven came close, and this appears to be equaling its critical reception, if not surpassing it.  As well, it should do the same if not better box-office.  Stars: Cate Blanchett, Cannes Best Actress winner Rooney Mara, Kyle Chandler, and Sarah Paulson.  Director: Todd Haynes.  Adapted Screenplay: Phyllis Nagy.  Editor: Affonso Gonçalves (True Detective, Mildred Pierce).  Score: Carter Burwell (Gods and Monsters, Coen brothers).  Cinematographer: Edward Lachman (Far From Heaven).  Production Designer: Judy Becker (American Hustle).  Costume Designer: Sandy Powell (three-time AMPAS-award winner and icon).  US Release Date: 20. November 2015 (post-Cannes/NYFF)

6 (--)
Bridge of Spies (Disney).  It's a Steven Spielberg film that carries the weight of importance, so, on the surface, it looks like a lazy nod.  But, Disney isn't always the best studio at this game.  Stars: Tom Hanks, Alan Alda, Amy Ryan, Mark Rylance, and Billy Magnussen.  Screenwriters: Matt Charman, Coen brothers.  Editor: Michael Kahn (three-time Oscar winner and longtime Spielberg collaborator).  Scores: Thomas Neman (twelve-time Oscar nominee).  Cinematographer: Janusz Kaminski (two-time winner and longtime Spielberg collaborator).  Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen (12 Years a Slave, The Grand Budapest Hotel).  Costume Designer: Kasia Walicka-Maimone (Moonrise Kingdom, Capote).  US release date: 16. October 2015 (after NYFF bow).

7 (+8)

Our Brand Is Crisis (Warner Bros).  This appears to be WB's #1 push, and they are pretty handy at the Oscar game.  Stars: Sandra Bullock, Billy Bob Thornton, Joaquim de Almeida, Zoe Kazan, Anthony Mackie, Scoot McNairy, and Ann Dowd.  Director: David Gordon Green (All the Real Girls, Pineapple Express).  Screenwriter: Peter Straughan (Tinker Tailor Solider Spy).  Editor: Colin Patton.  Score: David Wingo.  Cinematographer: Tim Orr.  Production Designer: Richard A. Wright.  Costume Designer: Jenny Eagan.  George Clooney is producing along with Grant Heslov and Bullock.  US release date: 30. October 2015 (after TIFF bow).  

8 (New)

Son of Saul (SPC).  It's unclear which film SPC is going to give the biggest push too.  But, as we saw last year, they can juggle several entries simultaneously, especially if they don't overlap with each other and/or they have a hard win campaign.  Still Alice won Best Actress; Whiplash won three of its five Oscars with an MC 88 and a very paltry box-office; Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner assembled a slew of nominations put together.  However, Whiplash was a Sundance darling, and Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner both won major awards at Cannes.  Still Alice was a breakout TIFF debut during a year with a very weak Best Actress field.  So far, Saul has a 90 MC with 9 reviews (3 100's) and it won the Grand Prix at Cannes.  Truth has the hefty price tag SPC paid, but also looks like liberal propaganda.  I Saw the Light needs a Still Alice-like reception this Fall.  Certainly, Saul doesn't have big-name recognition and it's a foreign-language film, but it is about the Holocaust, and is primed to be a critical darling, so a big embrace wouldn't surprise me.  This could be this year's Amour.  Or, it could be this year's A Separation.  Stars: Géza Röhrig.  Director: László Nemes. Screenwriter: Nemes, Clara Royer.  Editor: Matthieu Taponier.  Score: László Melis.  Cinematographer: Mátyás Erdély.   Production Designer: László Rajk (The Turin Horse).  Costume Designer: Edit Szücs.  US release date: 18. December 2015 (Post-Cannes/Telluride/TIFF/NYFF).  

9 (-1)

The Revenant (20th-Century Fox).  Troubled production may or may not open this year, but it likely will take backseat to Joy campaign.  Stars: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hardy, and Domhnall Gleeson.  Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman) who cowrote the adaptation of the Michael Punke novel with Mark L. Smith.  Editor: Stephen Mirrione (Traffic, Babel).  Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity, Birdman).  Production Designer: Jack Fisk (There Will Be Blood).  Costume Designer: Jacqueline West (Quills, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).  US release date: 25. December 2015 (which, incidentally, is also Joy's opening date).

10 (+2)

The Hateful Eight (TWC).  The sheer fact that this is a producer Harvey Weinstein and writer/director Quentin Tarantino production puts it in contention for something.  It will surely make a lot of money.  And, even if the critics don't support this fully, it can still do some damage at the Oscars.  And if the recipe is right, Tarantino can be seen as overdue and the movie can sweep a series of categories ala The Departed or No Country for Old Men.  It just fees like Reservoir Dogs set in the Old West, which gives me pause (truth be told, I'm also not crazy about Tarantino's films, which shouldn't be of any consequence, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't biased).  But, after more "ambitious projects" like the director's last two outings, it's difficult right now to imagine the AMPAS cottoning to this project in a big way.  Stars: Samuel L. Jackson, Jennifer Jason-Leigh, Kurt Russell, Bruce Dern, Demian Bichir, Tim Roth, Michael Madsen, and Channing Tatum.  Editor: Fred Raskin (Django, Guardians of the Galaxy).  Score: Ennio Morricone (Days of Heaven, The Mission, The Untouchable, Bugsy, Maléna).  Cinematographer: Robert Richardson (Django, Basterds, Hugo, The Aviator, JFK).   Production Designer: Yohei Taneda (Kill Bill Vol. 1, Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale).  Costume Designer: Courtney Hoffman.  US release date: 25. December 2015.  

11 (--)

Steve Jobs (Universal).  Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours) directs Aaron Sorkin's adaptation of Walter Isaacson's biography.  Sorkin is more hit (A Few Good Men, The Social Network, Moneyball) than miss, but this project was supposed to be made by higher tier talent.  Scott Rudin producing.  Stars: Michael Fassbender, Seth Rogen, Kate Winslet, Katherine Waterston, Jeff Daniels, and Michael Stuhlbarg.  Editor: Elliot Graham (Milk).  Score: Daniel Pemberton (The Counselor).  Cinematographer: Alwin H. Küchler.  Production Designer: Guy Hendrix Dyas (Inception, Elizabeth: The Golden Age).  Costume Designer: Suttirat Anne Lariarb.  US release date: 9. October 2015 (after NYFF bow).  

12 (-11)

Suffragette (Focus).  It appears to be playing second banana to The Danish Girl, but I wouldn't be surprised if this film were still to make a decent showing.  Stars: Carey Mulligan, Helena Bonham Carter, Meryl Streep, Ben Whishaw, Brendan Gleeson, Romola Garai, Anne-Marie Duff, and Natalie Press.  Director: Sarah Gavron (BAFTA winner).  Original Screenplay: Abi Morgan (Shame, The Iron Lady).  Editor: Barney Pilling (The Grand Budapest Hotel).  Score: Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game).  Cinematographer: Eduard Grau (A Single Man).  Production Designer: Alice Normington.  Costume Designer: Jane Petrie.  US release date: 23. October 2015 (after London bow).  

13 (-3)
 Brooklyn (Fox Searchlight).  Stars Saoirse Ronan, Domhnall Gleeson, Jim Broadbent, and Julie Waters.  BAFTA and Berlin winner John Crowley directed.  Nick Hornby (An Education, Wild) provided the adaptation.  Editor: Jake Roberts. Score: Michael Brook (Into the Wild).  Cinematographer: Yves Bélanger (Laurence Anyways).  Production Designer: François Séguin.  Costume Designer: Odile Dicks-Mireaux.  US release date: 6. November 2015 (Post-Sundance/TIFF/NYFF).

14 (+10)

The Big Short (Paramount).  AMPAS feels often like a boy's club.  Every year has at least six films with a male in a lead role.  The possibilities are pretty meagre right now.  And the lack of big studio representation outside of 20th-Century Fox and Disney is quite glaring.  The release date hasn't been solidified for this yet, so, it's a potential late-year release.  Adam McKay (Anchorman movies, et al) directed his adaptation from the Michael Lewis book.  Stars Brad Pitt, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Steve Carell.  Editor: Brent White.  Score: Nicholas Britell.  Cinematographer: Barr Ackroyd (The Hurt Locker, Captain Phillips).  Production Designer: Clayton Hartley.  Costume Designer: Susan Matheson.  (Going wide in 2016 according to IMDb) 

15 (-2)

Freeheld (Lionsgate).  Stars: Julianne Moore, Ellen Page, Michael Shannon, Steve Carell.  Director: Peter Sollett (Cannes and Sundance winner; Raising Victor Vargas [MC: 83], Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist [MC: 64]).  Screenwriter: Ron Nyswaner (Philadelphia).  Editor: Andrew Mondshein (The Sixth Sense).  Cinematographer: Maryse Alberti (The Wrestler, Crumb).  Production Designer: Jane Musky.  Costume Designer: Stacey Battat (who has already worked twice very recently with Julianne Moore, and often collaborates with Sofia Coppola).  U.S. Release Date: 2. October 2015 (post-TIFF).  

16 (+54)

Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros).  Made its budget back well over two-fold worldwide, and is one of the best reviewed sequels/reboots in quite a long time.  I wouldn't be completely surprised if this film surged with AMPAS members, particularly if all of WB's other projects fail.  George Miller cowrote with Brendan McCarthy and Nick Lathouris.  Stars Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron.  Editors: Jason, Ballantine, Margaret Sixel.  Score: Junkie XL.  Cinematographer: John Seal (The English Patient, Witness, Rainman).  Production Designer: Colin Gibson.  Costume Designer: Jenny Beavan (9 nominations including The King's Speech, 1 win for A Room with a View).  Released.

17 (-1)  The Walk (Sony).  Stars: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ben Kingsley, Charlotte Le Bon.  Director: Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump, Back to the Future).  Adapted Screenplay: Robert Zemeckis, Christopher Browne.  Editor: Jeremiah O'Driscoll (Flight).  Score: Alan Silvestri (Forrest Gump, The Polar Express).  Cinematographer: Dariusz Wolski.  Production Designer: Naomi Shohan (American Beauty, The Lovely Bones).  Costume Designer: Suttirat Anne Larlarb.  US release date: 2. October 2015.  U.S. Release Date: 9. October 2015 (post NYFF).  

18 (+19)

Miles Ahead (SPC).  Don Cheadle directs himself as Miles Davis as well as a cast which includes Ewan McGregor, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Emayatzy Corinealdi.  This film marks the first feature narrative Herbie Hancock ('Round Midnight) has scored in over two decades.  Was announced as NYFF closer a few weeks back, and then got picked up by SPC.  Some Oscar bloggers are reporting that it isn't going wide until 2016, which are giving some cold feet on being bullish on predicting it for awards.  Screenplay: Cheadle, Steven Baigelman, Stephen J. Rivele (Nixon), Christopher Wilkinson (Nixon).  Editors: John Axelrad, Kayla Emter.  Score: Herbie Hancock.  Cinematographer: Roberto Schaefer.  Production Designer: Hannah Beachler.  Costume Designer: Gersha Phillips.  ("Going wide in 2016" after NYFF bow)

19 (+12)

45 Years (Sundance Selects).  Stars Charlotte Rampling, Tom Courtenay.  Andrew Haigh (Weekend) wrote the adaptation from the David Constantine short story.  Editor: Jonathan Alberts.  Cinematographer: Lol Crawley.  Production Designer: Sarah Finlay.  Production Designer: Sarah Finlay.  Costume Designer: Suzie Harman.  (Post-Berlin Telluride TIFF with no U.S. release date yet.)

20 (+46)

Straight Outta Compton (Universal).  Stars: Keith Stanfield, O'Shea Jackson, Jr, Corey Hawkins, Jason Mitchell, Aldis Hodge, and Paul Giamatti.  Director: F. Gary Gray (Friday, The Italian Job).  Original Screenplay: Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman.  Editor: Billy Fox.  Score: Joseph Trapanese.  Cinematographer: Matthew Libatique (Black Swan).  Production Designer: Shane Valentino.  Costume Designer: Kelli Jones.  Released.  

21 (New) Youth (Fox Searchlight).  Post Cannes TIFF

23 (+23)  The End of the Tour (A24).  Released.  
24 (-4)  Concussion (Sony).  
25 (+11)  Spotlight (Open Road Films).  Venice/Telluride/TIFF
22 (+30)  Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens (Disney).  
26 (+13)  The Program (Currently no US distributor).  TIFF

27 (-1)  Silence (Paramount).
28 (-5)  The Free State of Jones (STX Entertainment).  
29 (-11)  The Secret Scripture (Relativity).  

30 (-16)  Lady in the Van  (SPC).  TIFF

31 (-14)  Burnt (TWC).  
32 (+11)  By the Sea (Universal).  AFI

33 (+45)  Sicario (Lionsgate).   Post Cannes TIFF

34 (+13)  Lion (TWC).  
35 (-26)  I Saw the Light (SPC).  TIFF

36 (-11)  Mr. Holmes (Roadside Attractions).  Released 
37 (+27)  Black Mass (Warner Bros).   Venice/Telluride/TIFF
38 (+13)  Pan (Warner Bros).
39 (-4)  The Good Dinosaur (Disney).  
40 (+36)  Everest (Universal).  Venice

41 (-19)  In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros). 
42 (New)  About Ray (TWC).  TIFF

43 (+13)  Spectre (Sony). 
44 (+1)  Trumbo (Bleecker Street Media).  TIFF
45 (-18)  The Last Face (Currently no US distributor).  
46 (-5)  Untitled Howard Hughes Film (Currently no US distributor). 

47 (-9)  The Light Between Oceans (Currently no US distributor).

Best Actress

One of the more "solidified" categories.  It's really more of a question if Suffragette's centrepiece Carey Mulligan can hang onto a nomination along with her Focus competition Alicia Vikander (who could possibly go supporting).  Waiting in the wings would be Fox Searchlight (Saoirse Ronan) or a veteran actress with a huge critical push (Lily Tomlin or Charlotte Rampling).  Maggie Smith also may be reemerging as a contender. 

1 (+1). Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

2 (+2). Cate Blanchett, Carol 

3 (--). Julianne Moore, Freeheld 

4 (-3). Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

5 (+4). Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn 

6 (+7). Sandra Bullock, Our Brand Is Crisis 

7 (-2). Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

8 (-1). Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

9 (+1). Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years 

10 (New). Lily Tomlin, Grandma

11 (-1). Rooney Mara, The Secret Scripture 

Best Actor

If Best Actress is solidifying, Best Actor is becoming even more concrete.  Though, it seems highly unlikely Eddie Redmayne will win a second Oscar after having just won one, anything is still possible. 

1 (--). Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl 

2 (+1). Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 

3 (New). Michael Caine, Youth 

4 (+15). Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

5 (New). Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation 

6 (-1). Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

7 (New). Géza Röhrig, Son of Saul 

8 (-4). Bradley Cooper, Burnt

9 (-3).Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies 

10 (-8). Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light 

11 (New). Johnny Depp, Black Mass

12 (+6). Will Smith, Concussion/Game Brain 

13 (-6). Jason Gordon-Levitt, The Walk

14 (-5). Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes

15 (-5). Tom Courtenay, 45 Years

S. Actress

Rooney Mara won Best Actress at Cannes tying with Emmanuelle Bercot (Mon roi) rather than splitting it with her Carol costar Cannes-less Cate Blanchett.  TWC will be campaigning Mara in supporting, despite the fact that she is a co-lead to her bigger costar.  There hasn't been a recent Cannes Best Actress winner whose film picked up Oscar heat.  However, in the past, the record is quite encouraging for a Mara nomination (Brenda Blethyn, Helen Mirren, Holly Hunter).  However, her subtle performance may be lost on AMPAS voters as far as a win goes. They would more likely go for a grieving or suffering wife or an abused one, especially if she has a large role.  We also still don't know what kind of impact Suffragette will have, though its London Film Festival premiere suggests its not the major award player it seemed like it could have been earlier in the year.  Vikander could quite possibly go the route of Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind and Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener, unless her studio sees a way for her to win lead.  

1 (--). Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl 

2 (+1). Rooney Mara, Carol 

3 (+16). Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

4 (New). Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead

5 (-3). Ellen Page, Freeheld 

6 (-5). Helen Bonham Carter, Suffragette

7 (-4). Diane Ladd, Joy

8 (+6). Meryl Streep, Suffragette 

9 (+1). Elisabeth Röhm, Joy 

10 (New). Elle Fanning, About Ray 

11 (New). Julie Walters, Brooklyn

12 (New). Jane Fonda, Youth

13 (+11). Jennifer Jason-Leigh, The Hateful Eight

14 (New). Melissa Leo, The Big Short

15 (-8). Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light

16 (+3). Isabella Rossellini, Joy

17 (-6). Vanessa Redgrave, The Secret Scripture 

S. Actor

Netflix is shaping up to be a major first-time film awards player with Beasts of No Nation.  Provided Idris Elba isn't going lead, Supporting actor is probably his to lose at this point.

1 (+23). Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation 

2 (--). Robert DeNiro, Joy

3 (+6). Joaquim de Ameida, Our Brand Is Crisis

4 (New). Harvey Keitel, Youth

5 (New). Benicio del Toro, Sicario 

6 (+1). Tom Hardy, The Revenant 

7 (-4). Christian Bale, The Big Short

8 (-6). Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight 

9 (+16). Bradley Cooper, Joy 

10 (New). Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies 

11 (--). Michael Keaton, Spotlight

12 (+6). Jason Segel, The End of the Tour

13 (+3). Michael Shannon, Freeheld 

14 (+3). Édgar Ramírez, Joy

15 (-5). Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand Is Crisis

16 (New). Robert Redford, Truth

17 (New). Hugh Keays-Byrne, Mad Max: Fury Road 

18 (-6). Billy Magnussen, Bridge of Spies 

19 (-16). Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Director

Inside Out has delivered the critical and commercial goods, but its awards chances will go into hibernation until December, especially since the conventional wisdom is that its reward will be a Best Animated Feature Oscar.  Still, nothing sticks out as an obvious winner, unless the AMPAS decide this is the year to crown Quentin Tarantino as writer, director, and producer.  Or will it be David O. Russell?

1 (New). Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation 

2 (--). David O. Russell, Joy

3 (+2). Todd Haynes, Carol

4 (--). Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl 

5 (New). László Nemes, Son of Saul 

6 (--). Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies 

7 (New). George Miller, Max Max: Fury Road

8 (+2). Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9 (-8). Sarah Gavron, Suffragette

10 (-7). Peter Docter & Ronaldo Del Carmen, Inside Out

11 (-2). Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant 

12 (+1). Robert Zemeckis,  The Walk 

13 (+7). Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

14 (-4). David Gordon Green, Our Brand Is Crisis 

15 (New). F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton 

16 (New). Paolo Sorrentino, Youth

17 (+2). John Crowley, Brooklyn 

18 (-10). Peter Sollett, Freeheld 

19 (New). Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

20 (-3). Andrew Haigh, 45 Years 

O. Screenplay

See Director comments.   

1 (+2). Joy

2 (--). Inside Out

3 (+6). Our Brand Is Crisis 

4 (New). Son of Saul 

5 (--). The Hateful Eight

6 (-5). Suffragette

7 (+3). Freeheld 

8 (-1). Bridge of Spies 

9 (+15). Miles Ahead

10 (New). About Ray

11 (New). Straight Outta Compton 

12 (-8). Burnt 

13 (New). Trainwreck 

14 (+3). Spotlight

15 (New). Grandma

16 (New). Youth

17 (+4). Concussion 

A. Screenplay

Beasts of No Nation could be the winner here, but early word that it isn't very "inspirational" have me wondering if the AMPAS "reward" the LGBT community with a win for Carol or The Danish Girl. 

1 (+1). The Danish Girl 

2 (+23). Beasts of No Nation 

3 (-2). Carol

4 (--). Brooklyn 

5 (+2). Steve Jobs

6 (+3). The Big Short 

7 (-4). The Lady in the Van 

8 (New). The End of the Tour

9 (+6). 45 Years 

10 (New). Max Max: Fury Road

11 (--). The Revenant 

12 (-2). I Saw the Light 

13 (-1). The Secret Scripture 

14 (-9). Our Brand Is Crisis 

15 (-7). Freeheld 

16 (--).  The Walk