Oscar Predictions 2014 (November pre-critic awards)

So, aside from Unbroken and The Imitation Game, I've seen all of the major award contenders for 2014.  I also need to see another film again, which I saw an unfinished version of (Selma).  My experience of that movie is that it fell way short of the expectations of what I had for it.  While the final cut may and probably will improve upon what I saw, the bottom-line is that I allowed my personal tastes to get in the way of prognostication.  My instinct was that it might be another Lincoln (important civics lesson that is life-affirming to a degree), but, unfortunately, I allowed my perception of how I thought MLK, Jr should be portrayed (I didn't find Oyelowo to come even close to nailing the mimicry, and found him to lack gravitas) to muddle my reasoning and ended up becoming suddenly very cool on Selma's Oscar chances after having placed it in the #1 position in several categories since June when Paramount moved it up from 2015 for a December release.  Oh well.  My experience of the film is still affecting my predictions, so the battle within continues.

Boyhood remains the best reviewed film of the year, made over the course of twelve years by a veteran director who marched to his own beat.  It's a moving coming-of-age movie which many of different generations can relate to, despite being era-specific.  The downside is that while it did well commercially for a movie of its size, its box-office take wasn't gangbusters.  The script isn't also without flaws, and the acting isn't always on-point.

Its main contenders would be Selma, which is off to a great start with its AFI debut.  People will rally behind this movie.  It's a significant story worth telling, but I, personally, was put off by some of the writing and acting.  I didn't find any of the onscreen talent particularly memorable, including David Oyelowo.  But, again, I didn't see a finished version, and I'm open to my mind being changed.  And, yes, I acknowledge, that I'm allowing personal perception to cloud my judgment.  The facts are that this was directed by a talented African-American female who had to fight tooth and nail to make a name for herself in the industry (as well as get her latest film done).  The movie will do well with mainstream audiences, if you consider that we celebrate MLK's birthday mid-January, Black History month is in February, and the 50th anniversary of the Selma marches depicted in the film will be marked the following month.  Another advantage this movie has, unlike Lincoln, is that it came out of nowhere.  It's not the "too big to win" entry imposing self-importance on The Academy, which they tend to dislike.  It should probably be higher in my rankings, but what can I say?

The other main contender is The Imitation Game, which had a a strong festival showing thus far.  Its early MC score might give one pause, though, The King's Speech four years ago found itself in a similar position around this time.  Both films are from TWC, and Harvey Weinstein won with Speech partly because he was able to keep it under the radar.  The same thing could happen here, especially if people are drawn to go see this in theaters.  I don't expect it to make Speech's numbers, but if it has the potential to hit $80M, that still puts it in a very good position.  However, a drawback may be the film isn't as uplifting as movies Weinstein can carry all the way first to the finish line.

Other than that, no other film is competing for the big win here.  Birdman, though struggling at the box-office, has the passion and reviews, it's not the kind of film the AMPAS award its top prize.  Its most competitive in Best Actor and Cinematography, and an extreme dark horse for screenplay.

Most of the reviews have poured in for The Theory of Everything, and while the ink post TIFF was strong, its MC score was disappointing as far as it being a major BP player.  It still could be resurrected with a strong box-office, and Eddie Redmayne gives the baitiest/showiest performance (empathetic disabled person) out of the main best actor contenders.

It would be an understatement to say that Interstellar disappointed critics as well as what people expected out of its opening weekend.  I tend to not care for Christopher Nolan as a filmmaker, and imagine my surprise when I ended up enjoying his film on Saturday.  Now, again, I'm allowing my personal feelings to creep in here.  But, with his new film, Nolan actually overcomes a great deal of his weaknesses as a filmmaker, or manages to modulate his lesser tendencies in a way that serves his movie.  What he accomplished was making a moving, original film with an epic scope and messaging that was informed without being preachy.  Still, there's a good chance that this underperforms on nomination morning.  And the AMPAS have never recognized Nolan as a director.  For some odd reason, I feel that could change this time.

I was pretty high on Gone Girl, but people insist that buzz has now died down for Rosamund Pike, as well as the rest of the film.  The truth is, though, this is still David Fincher's highest grossing film domestically ever, by a long mile.  The reviews were strong.  The subject matter isn't traditionally AMPAS-friendly, but, sometimes, this doesn't matter.  It would be disingenuous to compare the success of Fatal Attraction or even Black Swan to this movie, but, make no mistake, Gone Girl is no slouch.

This was an odd year, because I ended up liking films from not only Nolan and Fincher, but even Bennett Miller.  Foxcatcher is his most ambitious film.  It combines the bleakness of Capote and the love of sports from Moneyball to create an unsettling tale of privilege, desperation, and lost souls.  SPC has four movies this season to push.  Currently, this looks to be its main horse, but unlike Whiplash, Still Alice, or perhaps even Mr. Turner, this film isn't primed for any wins.

Unbroken premiered in Sydney early this week with a review embargo.  Oddly, there wasn't a great deal of enthusiasm that managed to leak out, which I find telling.  This should do well at the Globes, and will likely strike with mainstream audiences, but Angelina Jolie is really going to require exceptional reviews to overcome her celebrity factor.  The movie should still do well in the technical categories.

Those are my predicted nine for this year's BP race, which have been ranked different ways, but have always been the same. Some are more vulnerable than others, especially as we get towards the end of the list. I have Into the Woods as being best positioned to sneak in, but, like I said, SPC's situation leaves me very confused.

My updated predictions from September post-TIFF:

1 (+1). Boyhood (IFC).  
2 (+2). The Imitation Game (TWC).  
3 (-2).  Selma (Paramount).  
4 (+2). Birdman (Fox Searchlight).  
5 (+4). Theory of Everything (Focus).
6 (-3). Interstellar (Paramount).  
7 (-2). Gone Girl (20th Century Fox).  

8 (-1). Foxcatcher (SPC).  

9 (-1). Unbroken (Universal). 

10 (+3). Into the Woods (Disney).  
11 (+4). Mr. Turner (SPC).
12 (+6). Whiplash (SPC).  
13 (+3). Wild (Fox Searchlight).  
14 (-3). A Most Violent Year (A24).  
15 (+5).  Still Alice (SPC).
16 (-6). American Sniper (WB).  
17 (-5). The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight).  
18 (-1).  Top Five (Paramount).  
19 (-5). Inherent Vice (WB).  

Actress

From the time her reviews hit in early September like an atomic bomb, Moore was winning this race.  I dragged my feet for a couple of days, but it is written.

1 (--).  Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2 (--). Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
3 (+2). Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
4 (-1). Reese Witherspoon, Wild
5 (-1). Amy Adams, Big Eyes

6 (New).  Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
7 (-1). Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
8 (-1). Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Actor
This race is tough to call.  Cumberbatch will be campaigning his ass off and has Weinstein.  His movie will do well commercially, and the reviews should improve.  I would like to see Keaton win, however.  And if Fox Searchlight plays their cards right, they would play up his Hollywood history.  He was Mr. Mom, for Christ's sake.  Oyelowo played MLK in a movie that is, thus far, receiving high marks, so I can't rule him out either.  I'm still trying to absorb how impressed people are with his performance.

1 (+1). Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
2 (-1). David Oyelowo, Selma
3 (--). Michael Keaton, Birdman
4 (--). Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
5 (+2). Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar

6 (--). Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
7 (-2). Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
8 (+2). Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
9 (--). Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
10 (+1). Jack O'Connell, Unbroken
11 (New). Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year

S. Actress
This category I'm going "No guts, no glory."  Chastain may not even get nominated, and, if she does, it will likely be for a movie that has less going for it overall than just about every other contender in this category.  But, the turn was balls out good (she's iconic), and she's on her third nomination.  Arquette is campaigning and has a role where she displays a series of emotions, as well as fluctuations in her weight.  Streep's part as the witch in Woods is juicy and she delivers.  I probably shouldn't be predicting Chastain for the win, but I can't help it.

1 (New). Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
2 (--).  Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
3 (+4). Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
4 (-1). Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
5 (-1). Emma Stone, Birdman

6 (-1). Kristin Stewart, Still Alice
7 (+5).  Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
8 (-7). Carmen Ejogo, Selma
9 (--). Laura Dern, Wild
10 (-4). Jessica Chastain, Interstellar

S. Actor
This category seems pretty easy to call unless SPC drops the ball.  Working against the movie is that no one is going to see it, but Simmons is the one who makes the most sense at this point.

1 (+5). J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2 (+1). Ed Norton, Birdman
3 (-1). Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4 (--). Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5 (-4). Tom Wilkinson, Selma

6 (-1). Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
7 (+5). Domhnall Gleeson, Unbroken
8 (+6). Chris Pine, Into the Woods
9 (+4). Miyavi, Unbroken
10 (+1). Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Director
It's really down to Linklater or DuVernay.

1 (+1).  Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2 (-1). Ava DuVernay, Selma
3 (--). Alejandro Iñárritu, Birdman
4 (+1). Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
5 (+2). Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

6 (--). Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
7 (-3). David Fincher, Gone Girl
8 (+2). Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
9 (+2). J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
10 (-2). Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
11 (-2). Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

O. Screenplay
Probably the most competitive category this year.  Boyhood and Birdman are locks, but I can see an argument for any of the subsequent seven getting into those remaining three slots.

1 (--). Richard Linklater, Boyhood
2 (+1). Alejandro Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, & Armando Bo, Birdman
3 (+3). The Nolan Brothers, Interstellar
4 (-2). Paul Webb (& Ava DuVernay?), Selma
5 (+4). Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

6 (+2). Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
7 (--). J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
8 (-3). E. Max Frye & Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
9 (+1). Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
10 (-6).  Chris Rock, Top Five

A. Screenplay
I've been predicting Imitation Game for the win since February or March.  And, since then, there has been little activity in this category.  Gone Girl and Wild have been here just as long.  The Theory of Everything cemented its place after TIFF.  I'd say it was vulnerable if it wasn't such a weak category.  That fifth slot could go to just about anything.

1 (--). Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
2 (--). Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
3 (+1). Nick Hornby, Wild
4 (-1). Anthony McCarten, Theory of Everything
5 (+1).  Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland, Still Alice

6 (+1). The Coen Brothers, Richard LaGravenese, & William Nicholson, Unbroken
7 (-2). P.T. Anderson, Inherent Vice
8 (--). Jason Dean Hall, American Sniper
9 (--).  James Lapine, Into the Woods